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Abstract Atmospheric concentrations of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, have strongly increased since 2007. Measurements of stable carbon isotopes of methane can constrain emissions if the isotopic compositions are known; however, isotopic compositions of methane emissions from wetlands are poorly constrained despite their importance. Here, we use a process-based biogeochemistry model to calculate the stable carbon isotopic composition of global wetland methane emissions. We estimate a mean global signature of −61.3 ± 0.7‰ and find that tropical wetland emissions are enriched by ~11‰ relative to boreal wetlands. Our model shows improved resolution of regional, latitudinal and global variations in isotopic composition of wetland emissions. Atmospheric simulation scenarios with the improved wetland isotopic composition suggest that increases in atmospheric methane since 2007 are attributable to rising microbial emissions. Our findings substantially reduce uncertainty in the stable carbon isotopic composition of methane emissions from wetlands and improve understanding of the global methane budget. 

Abstract. Understanding the sources and sinks of methane (CH4)is critical to both predicting and mitigating future climate change. Thereare large uncertainties in the global budget of atmospheric CH4, butnatural emissions are estimated to be of a similar magnitude toanthropogenic emissions. To understand CH4 flux from biogenic sourcesin the United States (US) of America, a multi-scale CH4 observationnetwork focused on CH4 flux rates, processes, and scaling methods isrequired. This can be achieved with a network of ground-based observationsthat are distributed based on climatic regions and land cover. To determinethe gaps in physical infrastructure for developing this network, we need tounderstand the landscape representativeness of the current infrastructure.We focus here on eddy covariance (EC) flux towers because they are essentialfor a bottom-up framework that bridges the gap between point-based chambermeasurements and airborne or satellite platforms that inform policydecisions and global climate agreements. Using dissimilarity,multidimensional scaling, and cluster analysis, the US was divided into 10clusters distributed across temperature and precipitation gradients. Weevaluated dissimilarity within each cluster for research sites with activeCH4 EC towers to identify gaps in existing infrastructure that limitour ability to constrain the contribution of US biogenic CH4 emissionsto the global budget. Through our analysis using climate, land cover, andlocation variables, we identified priority areas for research infrastructureto provide a more complete understanding of the CH4 flux potential ofecosystem types across the US. Clusters corresponding to Alaska and theRocky Mountains, which are inherently difficult to capture, are the mostpoorly represented, and all clusters require a greater representation ofvegetation types. 

Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹from lakes larger than 0.1 km², accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

 

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO₂and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO₂sink with lower net CO₂uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO₂sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m⁻² y⁻¹). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH₄m⁻² y⁻¹). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO₂and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects.